The Never Ending Valley

If you’re like me, you want to know why and how a coin can increase 7200% over a period of a few days. A coin that had no interest for over a year, and had been trading for almost nothing, basically shot up out of nowhere. Look at that arrow where the volume spike is. After months of staring at these POT charts, the best I can figure out is that volume spike was the best way to anticipate the incoming pump. That was “smart” money moving in, to collect on the accumulation that they had going for months and months.

So, we all want to make money. It’s the What How and Why of BTC trading. The smartest of us use the knowledge that *everyone* is in the same boat, to our advantage, over and over again. If you want to be one of us, you have to believe in the consistency of the market, instead of the consistency of hype. Follow your charts, not the words of other people.

Last year in November, when I bought in to my own hype that CANN would pump (similarly to how POT pumped), I talked about how there are specific indicators of an upcoming pump. I was parroting other people that give coin advice as if they actually knew what they were talking about.  The volume had been increasing steadily, and it seemed that my post on CANN even helped excite the market a bit.  I effectively distracted myself from where the real money was moving.  It was an effective distraction, I sold my POT very early on in the pump, thinking that no one could have real interest in the coin.  Clearly, I was wrong, and POT is still trading above the price I sold.

How did this valley become a mountain so quickly? Right now, so much money has been traded up that there is an equilibrium being reached where all the “new money,” has been tricked enough times that they have learned to hold off on the gambling mentality, “buy as it goes up.” “Small,” percentage increases of 100-500% are simply not entertaining the masses anymore, because they have their sights set on the liquid gold of 1000-2000% overnight. When ‘everyone’ on Poloniex saw that a *real* pump was being co-ordinated across exchanges and had the ‘news’ from developers to back it up, it was the perfect catalyst to make massive gains.

Remember that when POT hit 522satoshi in January ‘15, there weren’t gains to be seen until October ‘16. For people trying to make money overnight, that is truly a never ending valley.

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